Of all the seasons in Minnesota, winter has the biggest impact on surface transportation. Snow, ice, high winds, blowing snow, and extremely cold temperatures all contribute to these impacts.
However, not all winters are the same. So what should we expect for winter 2022–2023? The current outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggests a colder than normal winter, with no strong signals on snow amounts.
How did the CPC make this forecast? The single largest contributor will be the phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This refers to a region of the Pacific Ocean where the departure from normal sea surface temperatures will affect the seasonal weather in North America. These temperatures are currently cooler than normal, so we are in a La Niña right now. This is our third La Niña winter in a row.
What do La Niña winters typically look like in Minnesota? Since the polar jet can move farther south into the US, we often see colder winters in Minnesota. This is especially true for the northwestern part of the state. Looking into long-range models, ENSO is favored to move into neutral later in the winter.
National Weather Service Products
The National Weather Service maintains many useful websites and products. Here are a few to consider:
- Climate Protection Center: Click to three-month outlooks for forecasts of temperature and precipitation.
- Main page for the Central Region Headquarters: Click your location on the map to get forecast and warning information.
- Radar for slow connections: Good for use when on slower connections such as mobile data.
- Radar for fast connections: More full-featured for use when you have a good internet connection.
- Winter Weather page: Provides expected snowfall, high-end amounts, low-end amounts, and probabilities of various critical thresholds (2 inches, 4 inches, 6 inches, etc.).
- Winter Storm Severity Index: Provides an overview of how impactful a winter storm will be. It can be broken down into separate components—snow amount, snow load, ice accumulation, flash freeze, blowing snow, and ground blizzard.
- Forecast Points page: Provides the full forecast for your location by searching or clicking on the map.
- Snowfall Map: Provides a map of snowfall amount reports.
Criteria for issuing NWS Products
Winter weather advisory:
- 3" to 6" snow
- Significant visibility reductions due to blowing snow
- Less than 0.5” of sleet
- Freezing drizzle/rain accumulations below 0.25”
Winter storm watch:
- 6”+ of snow in 12 hours
- 8”+ of snow in 24 hours
- 0.25” or more of ice accumulation
- Blizzard potential
- Wind plays factor, use discretion
Winter storm warning:
- 6”+ of snow in 12 hours
- 8”+ of snow in 24 hours
- 0.5” or more of sleet
- Forecaster discretion (combination of several impacts)
Blizzard warning:
- 35+ mph wind
- Considerable blowing or falling snow (snow need not be falling)
- 0.5” or more of sleet
- Forecaster discretion (combination of several impacts)
Ice storm warning:
- 0.25” of ice accumulation within 24 hours
- Use with freezing drizzle/rain only (no snow/sleet)
Interested in learning how meteorologists forecast the weather? Check out NWS JetStream.